Hard road ahead

In early 2009 the economist Paul Krugman warned us that the stimulus proposed by the Obama administration was not big enough to get us out of the trough. He noted that Japan had a “lost decade” of economic stagnation and that the lesson of 1937 was that retrenchment in government spending during a depression was a recipe for economic downturn.

So what happened?  The President’s inadequate stimulus was derided by the Republicans as being a waste of money.  Instead of pushing for more federal funding, they demanded less.  Frustration with our economic woes led to a Republican majority in the House and the election of people like Lou Barletta, a pack of clowns ignorant of economics but willing to destroy the country if it meant a Republican majority and the election of a Republican president in 2012.

In the last world-wide depression, many countries moved to the right.  Germany, Italy, Spain, Hungary, Japan--all became fascist, often scapegoating minorities for economic problems and imposing arbitrary rule.  Right-wing movements were strong in France and Britain as well.  In the U.S. we rode out the storm with New Deal programs, a popular president, and a fundamentally sound economic base.

We don’t have that strong social glue or economic strength this time.  We have a bitterly divided country, full of right-wing ideological fanatics.  Look for immigrants to be scapegoated.  Unions will be attacked.  Poor people will be told their problems are their own fault.  I don’t know whether or not this time the country will hold together during another deep depression.  I can only hope.