The Dunning-Kruger effect

According to Wikipedia, the Dunning-Kruger effect was first described by the social psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger in 1999 in a study entitled “Unskilled and Unaware of It:  How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments.”

Dunning and Kruger posit that people who are incompetent at a task are prone to see themselves as quite competent.  In other words, they are too stupid to recognize that they are stupid.  They are actually convinced they are doing great.  

Until today I never knew that an actual label existed for that behavior.  That explains so much.

The Fifth Risk

Michael Lewis has written a book about the Trump administration that hardly mentions Trump.  Lewis, as you may know, wrote Moneyball and The Big Short.  Both would seem to be about rather boring subjects (the inner workings of the Oakland A’s front office and the causes of the last recession), and both were made into exciting movies.  

In The Fifth Risk Lewis discusses how the Trump administration is dismantling the federal government while Trump himself continues to dominate the conversation by being outrageous.  He goes out of his way to insult people, and the press focuses on that behavior, missing major developments in the actual administration of the government.

One example:  Trump still has not nominated anyone for the position of undersecretary for food, nutrition, and consumer services in the Department of Agriculture.  This is a position that runs the food stamp program depended upon by millions of Americans.  This undersecretary supervises nutrition assistance programs, including school meals and the SNAP program. 

On the other hand, the USDA has seen patronage appointments of “a long-haul truck driver, a clerk at AT&T, a gas company meter-reader, a country-club cabana attendant, a Republican National Committee intern, and the owner of a scented-candle company.”

This is an Administration of neglect, of appointing the worst people to the top positions, many of whom opposed the policies of the very departments to which they were appointed.

In the meantime, we focus on Stormy Daniels and Trump’s latest tweet on the Saudis.  

I think we owe Michael Lewis our gratitude for calling attention to this.  I also think MSNBC and CNN could send a few reporters out to cover this on-going attempt to wreck programs that benefit Americans. 

More good election news

First of all, if you thought Mississippi would elect a black man over a racist white candidate, you obviously don’t know much about Mississippi.  But now the good news.

In Colorado voters passed Measure Y by 71% to 29%.  It sets up a commission of four Dems, four Reeps, and four members who are neither to draw U.S. House district boundaries.  

In Michigan voters passed Measure 18-2 with 61% of the vote.  It creates a commission of four Democrats, four Reeps, and five members who are neither.  It will draw districts for by the House and the state legislature.

In Missouri voters passed Amendment One, providing for a demographer to draw state legislative districts in a manner fair to both major parties.  

We are going to make elections fair one state at a time.  Every state that moves to fair districting helps to level the playing field.

The information for this post was from the December 1 issue of Ballot Access News.  

Weissport, Pennsylvania, turns blue

Tonight I attended a meeting of the Carbon County Democrats for Progress, a local group of activists.  The speaker was Billy O’Gurek, Chair of the County Democratic Party.  Mr. O’Gurek analyzed the results of the recent election in Pennsylvania and in the County.  The Democrats did very well statewide, winning elections for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and U.S. Senator, and picking up seats in both state houses.  Unfortunately, in Carbon County we were slammed.  

Carbon County is rural and somewhat depressed, with high opioid use and few job prospects.  In other words, Trump country.  However, O’Gurek noted that one municipality in the County voted Democratic in the Governor’s race, the U.S. Senate race, and the U.S. House race.  It was the tiny borough of Weissport, famous for the annual Redneck Festival.  

I am not kidding.  Every September the borough holds a “Redneck Festival.”  Nonetheless, out of the municipalities in the County, Weissport was the only one to go Democratic in all of those races.  Now we have to figure out why and duplicate that.

The wonderful thing about science

The Trump administration tried to bury the climate report by releasing it on a holiday weekend, but that doesn’t seem to have worked.  The report, over a thousand pages long, details the economic costs of climate change, and it is getting lots of attention.

When Trump was asked about it, he said he didn’t believe it.

I have a tee shirt with a quote from Neil deGrasse Tyson:  “Science is true whether you believe it or not.”

If you see something, say something

We ate lunch in a Denny’s on Thanksgiving Day.  I think it was in Indiana, but Indiana and Illinois kind of run together, so I’m not sure.  Anyway, there on the huge tv screen was Fox “News.”  I didn’t walk out, but I told the woman who was taking the payments that I thought a restaurant like Denny’s could run a non-political channel that would not insult its customers.

I am very polite when I do this, recognizing that often the employees are powerless to change the policy.  That seemed to be the case in this particular Denny’s; the woman told me they didn’t like it either, but it was what “Corporate” wanted.  She said when the “big boss” wasn’t there, they often changed it.  

Now I will have to write to Denny’s Corporation and tell them of my displeasure.  Just think if hundreds, or thousands, or hundreds of thousands of customers did that.  How long do you think Fox “News” would play?

Incidentally, I don’t ask that they play MSNBC or CNN.  The Weather Channel is not offensive, and it is actually helpful to travelers.  ESPN will do.  The old movie channel will do.  Telemundo will do.  Anything but Fox.

Weather and climate

We were in St. Louis on Thanksgiving Day.  The temp there was in the Fifties, but according to the
Weather Channel, in eastern Pennsylvania it was in the low teens.

I thought to myself, some idiot will no doubt try to use the low temperature to deny global climate change.

Sure enough, some idiot actually did tweet that.  Amazing, but predictable.  And sad.

Missing Jimmy Carter

Remember when Jimmy Carter stressed human rights.  OK, some of you weren't born yet when Mr. Carter was President, so let me explain.  The U.S. under his administration supported human rights around the world.  The idea may have been naive, but for four years this nation tried to do the right thing.

Now we are willing to sell out the whole idea of a moral foreign policy for what I believe is monetary gain for the President and his family.  Just when you think things couldn't get worse, they get worse.  There is no bottom.

I should explain that we are now in Ohio on our way to St. Louis to visit relatives.  If the posts are irregular over the next few days, you will know I was out of WiFi range.

Straight ticket voting

In Pennsylvania voters are allowed to vote a “straight ticket.”  For example, a Democrat can go in and vote “Democratic,” thereby voting for every Democratic candidate on the ballot.

It makes voting fast and easy.  Some reformers believe that if voters were forced to vote for each individual office, the voters would cast more thoughtful ballots.  Other observers feel that getting rid of straight ticket voting is actually a way to disenfranchise voters, many of whom would fail to vote in down ballot races.  

In Carbon County far more Republicans voted straight ticket than Democratic voters.  This is in keeping with the idea that Republican voters are more ideological and more likely to reject the idea that opponents would have any candidate worth voting for.

I personally like straight ticket voting.  I liked it even better when we used the machines with levers.  You’d go in, pull the curtain, pull the big lever for the big D, and all the little levers would clang into place.  It gave me a warm feeling.

Nancy Pelosi

It was her idea to push health care in the midterms and not talk about impeachment or even discuss Trump.

It was her wisdom to support Democratic candidates running in red districts who said if elected they would not vote for her.

It was her fundraising ability that allowed many Democratic candidates to outspend their Republican opponents.

It was her leadership skills that brought a majority to vote for the Affordable Care Act.

Now some Democrats, in the usual behavior of Democrats, want to divide the House and run a candidate for Speaker against Ms. Pelosi.  When the nation is watching to see what all of these new Democrats will do, a group of them want to behave like Democrats usually behave–form a circular firing squad.  

While I am on gun metaphors, I would take a bullet for Nancy Pelosi.  

Note:  Some of you may be wondering if I really sent that letter to President Trump that I posted yesterday.  I did.

a proposal for Trump

In the last 48 hours our president has said he wants to have a “great climate,” he noted that Finland didn’t have fires like California because the Finns take better care of their forests, and he discussed the need to clean up the forest floor.

Here is my idea.  All those troops deployed along the Mexican border could be redeployed to Truckee and equipped with rakes and large leaf bags.  They could rake toward Auburn, picking up pinecones and dead branches along with the leaves.  When they get to Auburn, they could turn north and rake to Grass Valley and Nevada City.  This would be a major step forward.

I will send this idea to President Trump tomorrow. 

Can't he do anything right?

Presidents have different levels of competence, but some duties seem to come naturally.  They comfort survivors when disaster strikes.  They honor the troops.  They award Medals of Freedom.  

Not this one.  When the fire struck California, he said California wasn’t taking care of its forests.

His behavior in France celebrating the end of World War I was a disgrace.

And he awarded a Medal of Freedom to a campaign donor.  A campaign donor!

In the meantime the Taliban is winning in Afghanistan, but we send troops to the Texas border.  

If you are losing the game, change the rules

In Pennsylvania Democrats won 54% of the state-wide vote for the state House of Representatives, but received only 45%, or 92 seats, out of 203 House seats.  That’s because of gerrymandering

In Michigan, Democrats won a clear majority of the statewide vote but received 52 of the 110 seats.  That’s because of gerrymandering.

In North Carolina Democrats won the popular vote by 79,000 votes but won only 54 of the 120 seats.  That’s because of gerrymandering.

In Maine the Republican candidate lost under the new system of preferential voting adopted by the voters.  He is suing to overturn the law, although he had no problem with it before he lost.

In North Carolina, when a Democratic governor was elected, the state legislature passed laws to reduce his power.

In Georgia the current Republican candidate for Governor made it more difficult for minority voters to cast ballots.

In North Dakota the Republican state legislature, to hurt Heide Heitkamp, passed a bill to disenfranchise American Indians who did not have a house number address.

I saw a sign held up by an opposing fan at one of the New England Patriots games.  The sign said, “The Patriots Cheat.”  Perhaps we should stand outside the polling places at the next election with a similar sign:  “Republicans cheat.”

PennEast/UGI pipeline people lie

Today we attended a Carbon County Commissioners meeting to urge the Commissioners to use their influence to pressure PennEast to negotiate in good faith with the landowners who are impacted by the proposed pipeline.  In all of their propaganda, PennEast/UGI says it wants to work closely with landowners.

They lie.  

They change the route without telling anyone.  They don’t publish up-to-date maps.  They have no one able to discuss changes in a meaningful way.  

A couple whose geothermal system will be wrecked attended the meeting.  If the pipeline were moved a few feet they would at least be able to keep the system.  It isn’t happening.  Albertine Anthony, 93, was also at the meeting.  The owner of a preserved farm, she is worried that the pipeline will disrupt her spring and water supply.  PennEast/UGI told her they would move it if she paid for the move, about $70,000.

I made a poster for the meeting.  It said:  “The three biggest lies:  1.  The check is in the mail.  2.  I gave at the office.  3.  PennEast wants to work with landowners.”

The Commissioners were amazed at how badly the property owners were treated, and they promised to contact PennEast and get some answers.  

Socialism for the rich, free enterprise for the poor

Hundreds of cities competed to get Amazon’s second (and now third) expansion site.  Millions of dollars were promised in tax breaks, kickbacks, and (let’s be honest here) bribes.  This was a scam.  So one of the largest corporations in America run by perhaps the richest man in the world gets subsidies from the taxpayers.  

There are some costs, of course.  Amazon has caused the death of hundreds of brick and mortar stores.  It dictates conditions to its subsidiary businesses.  It treats its employees badly.  It is a bully, and it grows larger and more powerful each year.

I have “Never shopped at Walmart” engraved on my tombstone.  I’d like to add “Never bought a damn thing from Amazon either,” but it costs so much to incise that in granite.

Diversity and unity

David Brooks recently wrote that the U.S. is undergoing major demographic changes, and we need to think of what binds us together as a nation.  Here’s what he said:

Here’s the central challenge of our age  Over the next few decades, America will become a majority-minority country.  It is hard to think of other major nations, down through history, that have managed such a transition and still held together.  

It seems that the Democratic Party is going to lead us through this transition.  The Republicans have decided to pretend it’s not happening.  Trump had a chance to build a pan-ethnic nationalist coalition but went with white identity politics instead.  Republicans have rendered themselves irrelevant to the great generational challenge before us.  

Brooks went on to say that if the Democrats are going to lead this transition, they need to do more than celebrate diversity.  They also need something that draws us together, that creates unity.  Right now we are an uneasy coalition of all kinds of groups, but we could splinter if we allow ourselves to be defined by our tribal identities.  We need something more, something to draw us together as one nation.  Self-interest or group identity won’t be enough.  

Perhaps economic well-being together with a livable environment for all of us might be that unifying force.  That’s the best I could come up with.

Commitment to vote

In Wisconsin an 83-year-old man on his way to vote hit a deer and totaled his car.  He then walked a mile to his polling place to cast his vote.

I hope he voted against Scott Walker, or he must have been very disappointed.

Chico, California

Our daughter Rachael, her husband Mark, and grandson Gavin packed up their dearest possessions (photos, letters, poems, guinea pig) into their car and truck.  Evacuation wasn’t mandatory, but Rachael thought the fire might spread to Chico, much like it had burned portions of Santa Rosa last year and Malibu this year.

Yesterday they couldn’t see the sun.  Rachael works for a social service agency, and a number of her clients and co-workers lost everything to the “Camp Fire,” as it has been named.  One of her co-workers who lived in Paradise came to work on the first day of the fire.  Rachael told her she should go home, but by the time she got back, the road was blocked and she lost her house, including her dog.  

You know those pictures of burned cars along the roadway?  I couldn’t figure out why so many cars were parked along the road, burt Rachael explained that people who were evacuating often had their way out blocked by fallen trees or electric poles and had to walk out.  

Honey Run Bridge, California’s oldest covered bridge which Linda and I visited a number of times, has burned, gone.

Rachael said the smoke was especially bad.  It is not only from the trees and leaves, but from the plastics and chemicals in the houses, the rubber from the car tires, the gas from the tanks.

Rachael got a call from an evacuation center that had people who were severely handicapped, including some  people who were unable to speak or were on respirators.  They needed wrist bands so the nurses would know how to treat them.  Rachael and Gavin went to Collier’s Hardware and got painters’ tape to use as wrist bands, and that worked.

Chico is full of refugees from Paradise and other small towns to the east of Chico, and the fire is now headed toward Oroville.  California’s fire fighting resources are stretched thin because of the fire that is also raging by Malibu.

Our president says this is because California doesn’t properly take care of its forests.  In the two years of his presidency this is one of the dumbest, most insulting, most insensitive things he has said.  

Stupid farmers

The 9th Congressional District had a farmer running for Congress.  Denny Wolff was a dairy farmer.  He knew statewide ag issues.  He had been Secretary of Agriculture in Pennsylvania.  He was an expert on selling Pennsylvania agricultural products abroad.  He had an A rating from the NRA (which I didn’t particularly like), he was kind of soft on pipelines (which I also didn’t like), and he was even kind of moderate on abortion issues (which I hated).  Nonetheless, when compared to his Republican opponent, a carpet bagger and one percenter who never did honest work in his life, Denny Wolff was the obvious choice for farmers.

But he was a Democrat.  So farmers in the 9th District, and I know some of them, went in and pulled the lever for the Republican.  They couldn’t get past their party affiliation.  They couldn’t even vote their self-interest or that of fellow farmers.

Am I bitter?  Of course I’m bitter.  Why wouldn’t I be?

And if they don’t like being called stupid, my advice is to quit being politically correct.  Stupid is the right word.

Turning 76, and more

Late yesterday afternoon I participated in a rally in Jim Thorpe in front of the Courthouse annex on behalf of Bob Mueller.  About 25 people showed up, Channel 13 covered the rally, and we were one of hundreds of rallies across the country.  My sign said, “No one is above the law–Magna Carta, 1215.”

Second, I am amazed that the acting Attorney General thinks that Marbury v. Madison (1803) was a bad decision.  For those of you who have forgotten your political science, that was the first case in which the Supreme Court decided that it had the power to declare a law unconstitutional.  Some branch had to do that, of course, if the Constitution was to be a meaningful document.  Now we have an acting A.G. who doesn’t get that fundamental fact.  

Finally, I have a birthday later this month.  I’ll be 76.  However, my friend Tom sent me an article about a Dutch guy who has brought a lawsuit to lower his age by 20 years from 69 to 49.  He says that if people can change their gender, he can change his age.  Evidently he is not getting many dating prospects at 69, but he thinks he will do better at 49.  Great idea!  I’ll be 56.  Please don’t send cards.

Making America Great

There are times this country makes my heart swell.  Two Muslim women elected to the House.  Two Native American women, one a lesbian, elected to the House.  First Korean-American woman elected to the House.  Over 100 women elected to the House!   First openly gay man elected as Governor.

Anti-union vote suppressor Scott Walker defeated.  Democratic governor elected in Kansas.  In Kansas!  Scott Wagner, the golf spike guy, defeated in Pennsylvania. Jon Tester wins in Montana.  

And tonight, on less than 24 hours notice, approximately 25 people showed up in Jim Thorpe to support the Bob Mueller investigation in a public rally at the Carbon County Court House.  

The political climate is changing.  The President is unhinged.  We are emerging from our national nightmare.

Rally at the Carbon County Courthouse Annex

The loss of the House must have gotten under President Trump’s skin, so he decided to take control of the news and fire Attorney General Jeff Sessions.  This, of course, means he will appoint someone to the A.G.’s position who would be willing to fire Mueller, which Sessions, in a burst of integrity, was not.

To counteract this, a rally will be held at the Carbon County Courthouse Annex in Jim Thorpe at 5 p.m. tomorrow, Thursday, November 8, to proclaim that no one in America is above the law. 

That principle was enshrined in the Magna Carta in 1215.  We will not allow it to be changed at this late date.

It will be dark at 5 p.m.  Bring signs.  Bring candles and flashlights.

We will not be alone.  Hundreds of gatherings across our democracy are planned.

A day at the polls

It’s 8:03, and I have no idea who won what.  Will our country continue its decline, or has the House flipped?

Today I passed out slate cards at the Palmerton Rod and Gun Club polling location.  I wasn’t there the whole 13 hours, but I did get there about 7:15, took a break mid-morning to drive a Lehighton resident to her polling place, went back for the lunch time rush, took another break mid-afternoon, and was back for the evening rush.

At the end of the day I felt fairly confident in my ability to judge Republican and Democratic voters when they got out of their cars.  If they were women under thirty, they were Democrats.  In fact, almost all of the women who arrived alone seemed to be Democrats.  Women with their husbands were harder to guess.  

Very old men (my age) were more likely to give me a thumbs up or “you got my vote” than guys in their 40s and 50s.  Young guys were hard to tell.  White guys in their 40s and 50s were generally hostile.  Trumpers, no doubt.  (In the entire day, I saw one African American.)  

I also observed a great deal of anger on the part of Republicans.  If people were pleasant and smiling, I’m pretty sure they were Democrats.  While some women turned down the cards because they were voting Republican, they were nice about it.  The Republican men, on the other hand, were surly, rude, nasty.  Why are they like that?

As many readers of this blog know, I’m an atheist, but right now I’m praying for the Blue Wave to wash across America.

Why I do what I do

Last night Linda and I worked a phone bank for our Democratic Congressional candidate Denny Wolff.  Today we met him at a campaign appearance in Lehighton.  Tonight we went out and put up yard signs at 18 polling places for Wolff, for the gubernatorial candidate Tom Wolf, for the U.S. Senate candidate Bob Casey, and our candidate for the state House Kara Scott.  Tomorrow Linda is passing out slate cards at the Towamensing Municipal Building; I’m working the Palmerton Rod and Gun Club.  We plan to be at our stations at 7 a.m.  And tomorrow night, after the polls close, we will drive around to pick up the signs.  

Do I enjoy any of this?

No, I do not.  I would rather sleep in.  I would rather watch Monday night football.  

Then I remember the kids separated from their parents.  I remember the Muslim ban.  I remember the lies that now run into the thousands.  The insults.  The dismissal of science.  The income tax cheating.  The environmental rollbacks.  The tax cuts for the rich, and on, and on.

I am driven.  I have to do this.  I truly believe that our 200+ year experiment with democratic government is at stake.  It may already be too late.

Denny Wolff comes to Lehighton

Wolff is the candidate for Congress in the 9th District.  He served as Pennsylvania Secretary of Agriculture, he worked on programs to increase agricultural sales abroad, and he has set up a large and on-going camping program for kids with special needs on his dairy farm.  If you know anything about farming, you are probably aware that dairy farming is the hardest type of farming there is.  Winter, summer, Christmas Day, doesn’t matter–those cows must be milked twice a day.

His opponent, who touts himself as a businessman, just moved into the district and has no qualifications to recommend him other than that he is in the top 1%.

If voters paid attention, if Trump wasn’t whipping up his base with horror tales of terrorist immigrants, and if money didn’t rule politics, Wolff would be a shoe-in.  He has a good chance, but it will be close.  

Wolff is campaigning in Lehighton tomorrow at the Democratic Information Center at 184 S. 1st Street from 2:30 to 3:30.  If you are in the area, come and meet him.  You will be impressed.  Plus I’m bringing donuts.

A note to Jay Ambrose

Today the Morning Call ran a column by Jay Ambrose, a conservative commentator.  Mr. Ambrose said that Donald Trump did not cause the shooting in Pittsburgh, and claimed that the man who shot up the synagogue could have just as easily taken a shot a Trump.  Then he noted that Trump has a high approval rating in Israel, a non sequitur of the first magnitude.

Since Mr. Ambrose listed his email address, I sent him the following reply:

Dear Mr. Ambrose,

I read your column on the Pittsburgh shooting in the Nov. 3 edition of the Allentown Morning Call.  In my view (and experience) the rhetoric of violence and hatred certainly has increased in the last two years.  The recent Trump rallies are exercises in promoting racial hatred, and the chants of “lock her up” during the 2016 campaign were frightening.  When tragedies do occur the President seems incapable of expressing heartfelt sympathy or concern for more than a few hours.  The President gives permission to insult minorities and women, and his supporters follow his lead.  You must be aware that the political climate in this country has changed for the worse.  I have an “Impeach Trump” bumper sticker on my pickup truck, and my friends are worried that someone will take a shot at me.  I’m pretty sure if I had had an “Impeach Obama” sticker, I would not have been threatened.

Two things in your column I found particularly offensive.  Anyone who knows American history is fully aware that we don’t need to refer to “this European-style experience of hell."  We have our own versions.  And please don’t use false equivalency.  You compare a guy beating a guy with a stick to a massacre.  That doesn’t work.

I’ve noticed that I never get a reply to my letters and emails.

Doyle Heffley writes a letter

Doyle Heffley writes a letter to PennDOT, sends out a press release touting his letter, and gets a headline and story above the fold in the Times News.  That’s right.  He wrote a letter.

If he actually did something substantive, they’d probably put out a special edition.

Climate Change Votes

Washington:  Voters in Washington will be voting on whether or not to impose a tax on carbon dioxide pollution.  The initiative includes specific guidelines on what to do with the tax revenue and stands a good chance of passing.

New Mexico:  Voters are electing a public lands commissioner, an obscure office, but one with the power to regulate methane emissions.  The Democrat is Stephanie Garcia Richard, who says she will crack down on methane leaks.  The Republican, Patrick Lyons, has the backing of the oil industry, including a $2 million contribution from Chevron.

Arizona and Nevada:  Both states are voting on whether to require electric utilities to produce more of their electricity from wind and solar.  The utilities in both states are campaigning against the measures.

Pennsylvania:  Sorry folks, we don’t have the initiative process, and Republicans have gerrymandered the legislative districts.  If you live in the 122nd, however, you could help by voting for Kara Scott.