Tuesday, March 3, 2020

Super Tuesday analyzed

Every Democratic presidential candidate has flaws, some more than others.  Primary voters and caucus goers seem overwhelmingly to be motivated by which of them can beat Donald Trump.  The other consideration is which candidate can bring in the largest number of House and Senate candidates along with him or her.  

Since the candidates I liked–Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and Yang–have dropped out, the main choice is between Biden and Sanders.  I like Bloomberg and Warren, but neither seems to be exciting much support.  While I think Biden has many flaws (he is sooo old, and he makes sooo many verbal errors, and he has sooo much baggage), he will be less likely to lose moderate states like North Carolina, Michigan, and Ohio.  He is also less likely to hurt Democratic candidates in swing districts, where Sanders would be a drag on their chances.

The idea that Sanders will bring out large numbers of young people to vote for him is a pipe dream.  I am enough of a political scientist to know that young people don’t vote in large numbers.  They never have.  There are many reasons for this, but trust me.  They are not voting in large numbers now, and they won’t in November.

So, bottom line.  Unless something happens today that I don’t anticipate and Warren and Bloomberg get large numbers of delegates, go with Biden.  And please don’t give me the crap about the lesser of two evils is still evil.  Neither Sanders nor Biden are evil.  Both are flawed.  Look at it coldly and rationally.  Who can best beat Trump and let that be how you decide.

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