Saturday, December 19, 2020

Swings for and against Trump

 It is interesting to learn where Trump gained and lost votes from his totals in 2016.  A December 8 article in “The Upshot,” an intermittent series in the New York Times that usually involves an analysis of statistical data, lists metro areas where Trump gained and lost.


Four of the five biggest shifts pro-Trump were Texas border cities:  Laredo, McAllen, Brownsville, and El Paso.  Remember when some Democratic candidates talked about opening up the border?  People along the border, including a large number of Mexican-Americans, definitely did not want to do that.  A scary thing for Democrats is that Trump did better in almost every area with a large Hispanic population, including the Bronx, LA, San Jose, and Hudson and Passaic counties in northern New Jersey.  


Three of the top five shifts toward Biden over Clinton’s 2016 total were in Colorado–Colorado Springs, Fort Collins, and Denver.  Some of Biden’s improvements came in urban areas in red states, such as Huntsville, Alabama, Fort Wayne, Indiana, and Lexington-Fayette, Kentucky.  Biden did better in areas with a high rate of college grads.  Interestingly, he also did better than Clinton in areas with military bases and retired military.  Trump still won those areas, but by a much smaller margin than in 2016.

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