Articles have been appearing in recent days apologizing for not foreseeing Trump’s success. Nate Silver, who made his reputation predicting election outcomes, was one such author, but there have been others, including an ace political reporter for the New York Times.
I was one of those people who got Trump wrong. I kept thinking he would implode, would be stopped by establishment Republicans, would be seen as the joke he is. It never happened. He had lousy opponents, he received an amazing amount of free media coverage, and he appealed to the dark side of American voters.
The biggest mistake I made, however, was to forget the words of H. L. Mencken: “No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people.”
Now the question is, could he win the presidency? See above quote.
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