Wednesday, December 8, 2021

Russia and the Ukraine

 Here is the problem with threatening Russia with economic sanctions if Russian troops invade the Ukraine.  They won’t work.

Really, they won’t.  If the invasion is popular with the Russian people, and it seems to be, they will be more than willing to put up with some economic hardship to reunite the Ukraine with Mother Russia.

What would work?  I’m not sure.  The U.S. population is too polarized to back a unified response.  As Chamberlain said of Czechoslovakias when Hitler threatened, it is a little country far away.  That is probably the reaction of most Americans to the Ukraine.  

If I were Biden, I would tell Putin that we have no interest in linking the Ukraine to NATO.  On the other hand, any overt invasion will result in an all-out effort to destabilize Russia, including cyber warfare.  And then follow through.

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