Shooting the Archduke Ferdinand

By an amazing coincidence, in the last three weeks I read an account of the shooting of the Archduke in J. M. Roberts’ Twentieth Century:  The History of the World, 1901-2000,  listened to an account in a Teaching Company history course taught by J. Rufus Fears, and am in the middle of a historical novel by Anne Perry entitled No Graves as Yet  set in July 1913.  I’ve also read The Guns of August by Barbara Tuchman, a book I’ve heard influenced President Kennedy’s actions in the Cuban Missile Crisis.  

In all of these accounts, it was clear that no one expected or predicted World War I.  After all, the last general European war had ended in 1815.  If a war did break out, it would be both short and glorious.

What happens is that small steps and limited wars often do not stay small or limited.  We aided Afghan rebels against the Soviet forces in Afghanistan and ended up with the Taliban.  We did “shock and awe” in Iraq and ended up with thousands dead and a country that is on the verge of civil war. 

I supported the President George Bush’s defense of Kuwait.  Iraq’s invasion was the first of that kind since the Korean conflict, it had UN backing, and it had a limited scope--to free Kuwait.  I supported President Clinton’s action in the Balkans.  It had a clear objective (to prevent genocide), it had international backing, and it was limited in scope.

The invasion of Iraq, however, was a different story.  In the first place, I wasn’t so sure about the weapons of mass destruction.  In the second place, I didn’t see when we would know if our objectives would be accomplished.  I didn’t even know what our objectives were.

Which brings us to Syria.  Is the evidence that the Syrian government used chemical weapons absolutely clear?  It is not.  Yes, I know about the intelligence reports, but we had good intelligence about Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction.  Yes, over a thousand people were killed, but many more were killed in South Sudan, and we did nothing.  

My concerns are that there is no such thing as a “surgical striken,”  that we can’t at this point be absolutely sure that the Syrian government did this, that even if it did I’m not sure it deserves an American response, and that there is no way to predict where U.S. actions will end.  

In simulations, “do nothing” is always an option.  In this case, I think the administration, at least for the next few weeks, should choose that option.