The Cuban missile crisis in slow motion

Since the late 40s the United States and the Soviet Union, now Russia, have possessed enough nuclear weapons to annihilate each other.  In all that time, neither country has used those weapons.

What prevented nuclear war was mutual deterrence, often called “mutually assured destruction,” or M.A.D.  I’ll admit those initials are somewhat ironic, but the doctrine worked.  Each side knew that if it launched nuclear weapons, it would be destroyed in turn.

Defensive measures were destabilizing, since if the U.S. could knock down all of the incoming missiles, it might be tempted to launch a first strike.  On the other hand, a defensive system would have to work perfectly within minutes the first time it was ever used with no full test of the system beforehand.  If Russia launched 1000 nuclear warheads and only 1% got through, the damage would still be unacceptable.  End result: nuclear standoff.

We did come dangerously close to a nuclear exchange (I love that phrase–sounds so Christmasy) during the Cuban missile crisis.  American generals wanted to bomb Cuba, and the U.S.S.R. would have responded.  Luckily, of the three leaders–Kennedy, Khrushchev, and Castro–only Castro wanted to fight.  The U.S. and the Soviet Union compromised (U.S.S.R. missiles out of Cuba, American missiles out of Turkey).

Now we have a problem with North Korea, and it seems neither Kim nor Trump are being very adult about this.  We do have cooler heads in Washington, but whether or not they can restrain Trump is problematic.  As for Kim, who knows?  

Nonetheless, M.A.D. certainly remains a viable option.  There is no reason to think that Kim or Trump are suicidal.  The problem is that Kim’s missiles may not be capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, which in turn may encourage Trump to act in a preemptive strike.  Even a preemptive strike will results in millions of deaths in South Korea and probably Japan.  And keep in mind the decision to use a nuclear first strike rests in the hands of a man who has not shown mature judgement.

The phrase “the Cuban missile crisis in slow motion” was coined by the international relations scholar Robert Litwak.  I wish I had thought of it.