In 2016 the group that gave Trump just enough votes to win the election consisted of white people with no college degrees. The number of voting-age white Americans without college degrees has dropped by more than five million voters in the past four years. The number of minority voters and college-educated white voters has collectively increased by more than 13 million in the past four years.
While white voters without college degrees are enthusiastic for Trump in 2020, Trump has not expanded this base. Instead he has inadvertently mobilized and energized minority voters and college-educated white voters. What this means is that he will have a harder time next Tuesday to win the election.
In Carbon County, where white non-college educated voters are the clear majority, he should do well. From my experience, however, Trump has also managed to create determination among many people who sat back in 2016, thinking he had no chance. This year they are definitely voting.
Info on the demographic shift is from Ford Fessenden and Lazaro Gamio, “Trump Fighting to Defy a ‘Sinking Demographic Ship,’” New York Times, (Oct. 23, 2020), p. A14.
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