Wednesday, June 5, 2024

Nuclear War: A Scenario

I’ve been a big fan of “Mutually Assured Destruction” as a way to prevent nuclear war.  It is a strategy developed by game theorists, and while its acronym is MAD, it has worked for the last 70 plus years.  It is based on the idea that if a nation uses nuclear weapons against an opponent that can retaliate with nuclear weapons, it will not attack.  An attack would be suicidal.


Unfortunately, things can go wrong.  What happens if a nation uses nuclear weapons on an enemy that lacks a retaliatory capability.  (Think Russia vs. Ukraine.)  What happens if a country is governed by a madman who doesn’t care about suicide.  Perhaps he is someone who believes in the rapture or someone who thinks it is God’s will.  Or maybe it is a leader who is batshit crazy.  (Think North Korea.)  Suppose we have a President who thinks a nuclear “exchange” is winnable, and doesn’t understand nuclear winter and fallout and literally billions of casualties.  Accidents can happen; we have come close with misread signals in the past.


I just finished Nuclear War:  A Scenario by Annie Jacobsen.  Ms. Jacobsen has done her research, interviewed Defense Department experts, and presents a minute-by-minute account of how a nuclear holocaust could start.  It is not a book to read before bedtime, but I think it should be required reading for every leader in every one of the countries that possess nuclear weapons.  

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