Blaise Pascal (1623-1692) was a gifted mathematician, but he spent the last years of his life as a religious fanatic. He did manage to combine his work on probability and religious mysticism in what has been labeled “Pascal’s Wager.”
Here’s a summary. Suppose you are a betting man, and you wonder if God exists. You can bet either way. If you bet God does not exist and you are right, no harm done. If God does exist, however, you spend eternity in the fiery pit.
Let’s say you do bet on God’s existence. If you are wrong, you haven’t lost anything. On the other hand, if you are right, you go to heaven and spend eternity in bliss. Obviously, the smart money is on the existence of God.
Putting aside the question of whether, if God does exist, he or she would reward the clever bettor, Pascal’s proposition makes sense. Let’s apply it to global warming.
If you bet that global warming has no connection to human activity and you are right, no harm done. If you are wrong, however, the earth continues to warm, the planet’s ecology changes, and human life as we know it pretty much goes down the tubes.
On the other hand, if you bet that the pollution caused by human activity has an effect on the climate and you are right, your subsequent policies may have saved the planet. If you are wrong, you have done no real harm--in fact your subsequent actions will have made the atmosphere less polluted.
Let’s make the intelligent bet.
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