Irrational actors

I was a political science grad student at Penn State in the 60s.  Game theory was all the rage at that time.  Mutually assured destruction, or MAD, was one of the “games.”  The U.S. and the U.S.S.R. played this game--each knew that if it launched a first strike with nuclear weapons, it would be destroyed.  The “game” depended on rational actors who knew their self-interest.  The biggest test of the game came during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and both sides behaved with restraint.  Both behaved rationally.

The game of “chicken” is classic game theory.  Two drivers drive their cars toward each other; the first one to veer away is the chicken and loses the game. If one of the drivers is suicidal or crazy, he will win the game.  (I say “he” because women are not stupid enough to play this game.)  

So what we have is one side in the debt ceiling conflict that is crazy.  In the game of chicken, crazy people win.  In MAD, the crazy side provokes the war. The problem is that in the resulting war or the resulting car crash, everybody dies.  In the case of the debt ceiling, the U.S. economy is destroyed.  Unfortunately, we are dealing with crazy people who welcome that outcome.

One way to counter that outcome is to be even more crazy.  So I am ready to put a brick on the accelerator, throw the steering wheel out the window, and brace myself for the crash.  You want Tea Party, you want crazy--bring it on.

Fortunately for the United States and its citizens, I’m just a blogger, not the President.