World War III

Here’s what scares me. When Archduke Ferdinand and his wife Sophie were assassinated exactly 100 years ago, no one expected a general war.  It was some quarrel between Serbs and Austrians, it was far away, and it had nothing to do with France or Germany or Britain--certainly not the U.S.

Nonetheless, by a series of small steps almost the entire world was sucked into a global conflict that killed 8.5 million soldiers and 7 million civilians.  In addition, historians often point out that the seeds of WWII were planted between 1914 and 1918.

Here are three lessons.  First, don’t be overeager to jump into war.  In fact, there was little reason for either Britain or the U.S. to enter the war, and almost everyone who studies the origins of WWI can think of any number of points where war could have been averted with better leadership and more flexibility.

Second, nations over-learned the first lesson and waited too long to confront Germany in the Thirties.  When Britain and the U.S. and the Soviet Union did act, it was almost too late.  In fact, two of those countries only were drawn into the conflict after they were attacked.

The final lesson is that some event may be occurring that could be the beginning of World War III.  The Sunni and Shiite conflict could spread, the Ukraine/Russian tension could escalate, the conflict between China and its neighbors over control of the South Pacific could blow up, the rivalry between India and Pakistan could go nuclear, and war could spread.  We will wonder why we didn’t see it coming.